A six-year investigation by the Observatory for Religious Freedom in Africa (ORFA) has revealed that 79,323 people were killed in terrorism-related violence across Nigeria between 2020 and 2025, while 34,773 civilians were abducted during the same period.
The findings were unveiled in Jos on Tuesday in a report titled Four Times Boko Haram? How the World Misreads Nigeria’s Violence.
According to a statement signed by ORFA’s Senior Research Analyst, Frans Vierhout, the violence recorded during the six-year period translates to an average of seven attacks and 36 deaths every day.
The report stated that 42,033 of those killed were civilians, while security personnel and members of armed groups accounted for the remaining 37,290 fatalities.
“A total of 79,323 people were killed in Nigeria between 2020 and 2025—an average of seven attacks per day. More than 42,000 of those killed were innocent civilians,” the report stated.
ORFA, which monitors religious freedom and documents human rights violations across Africa, said its researchers spent years verifying attack patterns using multiple sources, with the findings challenging widely held assumptions about the principal drivers of violence in Nigeria.
According to the report, Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) were responsible for 12 per cent of civilian killings during the review period, with Boko Haram accounting for eight per cent and ISWAP four per cent.
The report attributed 18,577 civilian deaths—representing 44 per cent of all civilian killings—to armed groups it classified as “Fulani Terror Groups,” compared to the combined 4,941 civilian deaths linked to Boko Haram and ISWAP.
ORFA stressed that its classification refers specifically to armed groups and should not be interpreted as referring to the Fulani ethnic group as a whole.
“ORFA is careful to distinguish between armed Fulani terror groups and the Fulani people as a whole, the vast majority of whom are not involved in violence,” the report noted.
Commenting on the findings, Vierhout said the data pointed to a pattern that deserved greater international attention.
“The data makes this very difficult to ignore. We examined how killings occur, who the victims are, where attacks take place and the seasonal patterns of violence. The evidence points strongly in one direction,” he said.
He added that violence linked to armed Fulani groups had become the dominant contributor to Nigeria’s civilian death toll and argued that excessive international focus on Boko Haram had obscured broader security realities.
The report also documented 34,773 civilian abductions between 2020 and 2025.
According to ORFA, armed groups classified as “Fulani Terror Groups” accounted for 43 per cent of the abductions, while “Unidentified Terror Groups” were responsible for 49 per cent.
The study further examined what it described as the religious dimensions of the violence.
It reported that 28,551 Christians and 13,224 Muslims were killed during the review period and stated that, after adjusting for state population figures, Christians in affected states were killed at 4.4 times the rate of Muslims.
ORFA also cited findings from survivor testimonies, describing what it termed a “Captivity by Creed” pattern.
According to the report, Muslim captives generally experienced lower ransom demands and less violence, while Christian captives were more likely to face higher ransom demands, prolonged captivity, execution and, in the case of women, a greater risk of sexual violence.
The report added that 15,932 Christians and 15,272 Muslims were abducted during the six-year period.
Steven Kefas, ORFA’s Senior Research Analyst and author of Captivity by Creed: The Religious Sorting System Nobody Talks About, said the research revealed a recurring pattern across different regions and armed groups.
“The field research reveals that a lesser value is assigned to a Christian life. From the moment of capture, Muslim and Christian hostages enter different realities. It is not about individual captors. It is a system that is consistent across multiple states, armed groups and years of survivor testimony,” he said.
ORFA also found that 75 per cent of civilian deaths occurred during attacks on communities, many involving raids on farming settlements, kidnappings, rape and the destruction of property.
According to the organisation, each incident in its database was documented using up to 60 separate data points compiled from field investigations, local partners, academic institutions, media reports, non-governmental organisations and verified social media content.
The organisation called for a broader understanding of Nigeria’s security crisis, arguing that efforts to address the country’s insecurity would remain incomplete without recognising what it described as the religious dimensions of the violence.
The full six-year ORFA 2026 report is available on the organisation’s official website.